Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS63 KDDC 211121
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
521 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool weather will persist today and tonight with highs in the
  upper 40s to lower 50s and lows in the 20s.

- Warmer temperatures are forecast for Friday through Sunday,
  with highs near 60, warming to the lower to possibly mid 60s.

- Cool weather will return by Monday and there are small chances
  for light rain or light snow by mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Cool surface high pressure will linger across the plains today
before gradually moving off to the east by late tonight and
Friday. Although 850mb temperatures will be warming today, a low
level inversion will exist beneath 850mb owing to weak vertical
mixing. Expect highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will be
rather light again tonight and with radiational cooling, lows
will be in the mid to high 20s. On Friday, weak upper level
ridging and a stronger mid level wind component across the
Rockies will encourage a weak surface trough in the lee of the
Rockies and a return to southerly winds. Highs ought to reach
the upper 50s to near 60.

A zonal flow pattern will develop by Saturday as upper level
heights fall along the west coast. The lee trough will
strengthen a bit more, which will promote a continuation of
south winds. Expect highs to reach into the lower 60s, and
possibly mid 60s across far western Kansas.

An upper level system passing across the northern plains will
push a cold front through western Kansas Sunday or Sunday night.
The timing of the front will determine how warm temperatures
get. The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble mean 850mb temperature fields
show a slower frontal passage than the GEFS. The slower solution
shows +12-13C 850mb temperatures at 18z, which could yield highs
in the lower to mid 60s. A faster solution would yield slightly
cooler readings. Cooler temperatures can be expected for Monday
as weak surface high pressure pushes down the plains. The GEFS
and CMCE ensemble mean 850mb fields indicate a stronger push of
cool air, with highs possibly in the mid 40s while the ECMWF
ensemble mean would support temperatures a few degrees warmer.
These temperatures are slightly below seasonal averages. Low
temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings will likely be at or
just below seasonal averages in the mid 20s.

A shortwave trough will is advertised to approach the plains by
mid next week, with a frontal boundary likely developing across
Kansas or perhaps staying south of Kansas. The various ensemble
mean upper level solutions indicate a fast-moving system, with
possibly some light precipitation with any mid level warm
advection ahead of the trough. The GEFS ensemble mean shows
30-50% chances for > .1" of precipitation, while the other
ensemble means are drier. Precipitation amounts and type will
depend on how far south the upper level system moves and where
the low to mid level baroclinic zone is located. A farther
south solution could result in better chances for light
precipitation (rain or snow). But for now there is a lot of
uncertainty in precipitation amounts, if any.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Surface high pressure will gradually shift eastward through the
period. This will result in light north to northwest winds at
10 kts or less, then becoming light by sunset. Winds will
become light southerly at less than 10 kts toward the end of the
period as a weak surface trough forms in the lee of the
Rockies.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch