Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS63 KDDC 141019
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm today.

- Dry conditions persist through early Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of a large scale upper level trough
of low pressure edging eastward through the Great Basin. Near the
surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains nearly stationary
from eastern Colorado southeast into extreme southwest Kansas.

The ongoing dry pattern will persist through early this weekend
as the SREF indicates a broad scale upper level trough lifting
northeast across the Colorado Rockies late tonight, and farther
northeast up into the Dakotas Thursday. In response, the
aforementioned lee side trough axis will begin to shift eastward
through southwest Kansas early this morning, and into central
Kansas this afternoon allowing much drier air to overspread the
area within a westerly downslope flow. The dry airmass will be
reinforced by a west-northwest downslope flow developing early
Thursday morning behind a projected weak cold front pushing
through western Kansas, essentially capping any precip chances
across the region through early Saturday.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely again today as the
previously mentioned westerly downslope flow sets up across
southwest/central Kansas this afternoon, pushing H85 temperatures
up a little above 25C across the entire area. Under mostly sunny
skies, look for afternoon highs well up into the 90s(F) for much
of the area as suggested by the HREF showing a 80-90% probability
of temperatures exceeding 90F in central/south central Kansas to
a 90% probability of temperatures nudging above 85F along the
Colorado line in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak cold front
pushing through western Kansas early Thursday morning will bring
an end to the warming trend with cooler air lowering H85
temperatures back down below 20C in central Kansas to a little
above 20C in southwest Kansas. Expect widespread afternoon highs
in the 80s(F) Thursday with similar temperatures Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Patchy fog developing across portions of southwest Kansas this
morning will result in IFR cigs/vsbys primarily in vicinity of
KDDC and KGCK through mid-morning. Otherwise, widespread VFR
conditions are expected by late morning and continuing through
late evening. West-southwest winds around 10 to 20kt developing
in extreme southwest Kansas early this morning are expected
spread eastward behind a lee side trough axis advancing eastward
across the rest of southwest Kansas into central Kansas through
early afternoon. Gusts up to 25kt are possible in vicinity of
KLBL in conjunction with increased daytime heating.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson