Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

382
FXUS63 KDDC 191037
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
537 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures this weekend and into next week with highs
  nearing the century mark.

- Thunderstorms chances (20-30%) Saturday and Sunday evenings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A stray thundershower is meandering out to the east of the forecast
area. Beyond that, the morning is expected to be quiet as
temperatures race up towards the triple digits. Ensembles have most
of the CWA at a 25% chance or better for 100 degree highs with much
higher chances in the eastern and southern portion of the CWA. By
the evening, some storms are forecast to develop along the center of
the CO/KS border. It is expected that the storms will move primarily
eastward and only impact the northern counties north of highway 96.
While the majority of the thunderstorm potential is expected to be
sub-severe, if the storms can organize a stray 60 mph wind gust can
not be ruled out. Ensembles only have a 25% chance for much of the
northern zones, likely depicting the expected scattered mode of the
thunderstorm development. Current RAP mesoanalysis still has a
primarily zonal flow aloft. The lack of upper-level dynamical
support will help minimize any severe risk for Saturday.

The Saturday forecast is indicative of the weather stretch ahead.
Hot temperatures and mostly dry weather with the occasional storm
that can not be ruled out. Sunday`s forecast has highs up to 103 in
the far southeastern counties. CAMs have weak storms developing and
moving out of the southeastern corner of Colorado before
dissipating. A lack of shear (<25 KTs in NAMNST forecast soundings)
and upper-level support will fight against the storms organizing
resulting in a near zero severe threat.Sunday may end up being the
warmest day of the stretch, but the next few days will be similar in
temperature.

Monday is forecast to be a degree or two cooler than Sunday, but
still hot enough to warrant heat precautions. Ensembles only have
around a 25% chance for precipitation and it is contained to the far
western and northern portions of the CWA. Like the rest of the
storms it is not expected to be severe, but strong wind gusts are
possible with the most organized storms.

Wednesday has a better chance for storms out west with ensembles
being as excited as a 50% chance. Enough uncertainty and dependence
on the days prior to monitor these chances with a decent likelihood
of changes. The rest of the period is expected to be the same. Highs
in the 90s and potentially the low 100s with rain chances out west
that is too uncertain to speculate about.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites through the
period. The period is forecast to be quiet with primarily clear skies
and mostly a 10 KT south wind. HYS is expecting VCTS around 1-6Z,
with some uncertainty regarding the precise timing of the nearby
storms that end up moving north of the terminal.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ